#大佬观点

AI revenue is scaling 3x quicker than mobile or internet did. The unit of value is shifting from attention to completed work.

http://x.com/i/article/2073090223194755072

Think there is a clear way to improve AI writing for non-fiction (we did that for one of the gpt4o version). Much of the gap comes from conflicting optimization objectives during RL: the traits that make a model pleasant to chat for consumer are often at odds with the qualities valued in academic / technical / research writing, where precision, info density, structure, and restraint matter more. Creative writing is a different problem entirely imo. It’s about building coherent worlds, developing characters, maintaining narrative consistency, and creating emotional arcs over hundreds of pages. Great novels were written over years of iteration on structure, theme, and character. And simply we don’t have much of the historical data to capture the entire process to train on within the current paradigm (eg hard to simulate Pixar’s braintrust process for AI), but I also think no lab has put in resources into it bc it’s almost impossible to measure + not much economic value I once gave a talk on this: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1d7fsWsVYnKy0zVZhYil-cJ7ONEpnKB9D4sVmWGrAnJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

"Anything that involves information, anything short of shaping atoms, AI can do 50% of all those jobs right now" - Elon Musk He says white-collar work goes first because it only manipulates information, not atoms. If a job is basically typing, clicking, researching, writing, analyzing or teaching on a screen, AI can do it. The shift will lag due to inertia, but competition will force faster adoption when AI-heavy firms outperform AI-light firms. And then humanoid robots will take most blue-collar jobs. Once machines can “shape atoms,” robots will do physical work in factories, logistics, maintenance, construction, and even run data centers. He expects far more humanoid robots than humans, initially scarce then plentiful, with the main bottlenecks being power, cooling, and materials, not software. --- Video from 'Peter H. Diamandis' YT channel (full link in comment)

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's new interivew: Explains how the next AI moat will not be the model you use, but the learning loop only your company can run. He is really asking what happens to the firm when intelligence becomes something you can rent. For a century, companies protected value through people, processes, data, routines, customer memory, and the tacit knowledge buried in daily operations. Foundation models threaten to flatten that advantage because the same general intelligence can be used by everyone. Nadella’s answer is that firms need their own “hill climbing machine,” a private loop where models learn from company-specific tasks, traces, evaluations, and outcomes. That means the real asset is not just the model. The asset is the environment that keeps improving the model in ways competitors cannot copy. Private evals become strategic memory. Workflow traces become training signal. Human judgment becomes a way to steer compounding, not just correct mistakes. This also reframes AI adoption: a company that only consumes a foundation model may gain productivity, but it may leak the deeper value of its operating knowledge. A company that builds a disciplined learning loop can turn everyday work into accumulating IP. The future firm may therefore be measured by how well it converts its unique activity into durable model improvement. The frontier will not belong only to whoever owns the largest model. It will belong to whoever owns the best loop. ---- From "Stanford Online" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

@chamath AI+Robots will be able to do everything, resulting in universal high income. Work will be optional.

i've got codex... - reading all my emails to figure out proposals to write, directly in google drive - auto-drafting contract redlines that i can check with my lawyer on - using computer use to add into docusign for me - reading slack feedback channels to auto-fix bigs - writing unit tests for me overnight to make sure i have 100% coverage - kicking off 6 threads in parallel on worktrees so the PRs can be merged separately hard to imagine going back to an IDE, and certainly hard to imagine going back to vim