#大佬观点

Since I'm now blocked by bluey from replying to this thread, I answer here by quote tweet the openAI construction has more to do with convex integration than anything else. In convex integration, the oscillations are typically built by hand and the iteration procedure creates wild weak solutions. The non-uniqueness construction of Albritton–Brué–Colombo used an unstable vortex to split solutions apart. The Córdoba–Martínez-Zoroa singularities amplify vorticity across scales by strain. In the openAI paper, a fluid instability is clever made so that the flow itself generates the oscillations: they grow by drawing energy from the background shear. The Reynolds stress then becomes the force that creates the collapsing smooth vortex. Using a physical instability to create the stress in this way has no precedent, and it is what produces a smooth force rather than a merely rough one. Some on these ideas are in the literature (e.g. Leibovich-Stewartson 1983) but the way they are combined is definitely insane and definitely nowhere in the literature previously. I also don't know of anyone suggesting that convex integration would play a role in the creation of a blow-up solution like this. On a technical level, the paper is unbelievable, maybe beyond what a human could have come up with but not beyond human understanding: there are several different groups of pde experts working on understanding it who say that they more or less understand now. I expect digestions soon td;lr: anyone saying that this OAI result is unsurprising is bullshitting sorry!

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

Bill Gates wants powerful open-weight models to run only where the government says they can. For any model capable of sophisticated cyber attacks, he wants safeguards and monitoring kept in by law. Developers could still use these models for free and customize them, but only on certified platforms that detect and refuse any attempt to strip out the safeguards. ---- Full video on "Decoder with Nilay Patel (@reckless) and The Verge" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

Bill Gates wants powerful open-weight models to run only where the government says they can. For any model capable of sophisticated cyber attacks, he wants safeguards and monitoring kept in by law. Developers could still use these models for free and customize them, but only on certified platforms that detect and refuse any attempt to strip out the safeguards. ---- Full video on "Decoder with Nilay Patel (@reckless) and The Verge" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

Sundar Pichai 谈 Gemini 4 与 AI 算力紧缺 即便是 Google 也拿不到足够的算力。在 Gemini 4 Argon 更广泛发布后不久，我与 Google 和 Alphabet CEO @sundarpichai 坐下来聊了聊它的早期反响、他仍希望模型改进的地方，以及要让 Google 保持在 AI 前沿需要付出什么。 Pichai 解释了 Google DeepMind 近期的领导层变动，以及为什么构建前沿模型已成为一份“全身心投入”的工作。我们还谈到了 Google 对个人智能体竞赛的回应、他如何预测 Gemini 将替你完成更多工作，以及智能体最终是否会把 Search、Gmail 和 Gemini 整合到一起。 我问他 Google 自由现金流转为负值、AI 基础设施建设中的风险，以及他如何在还不知道模型将具备何种能力的数年前就规划需求。他解释了让他有信心继续投入的信号，以及他如何使用 AI 智能体来跟踪 Google 内部的模型开发和算力使用情况。 时间戳： 00:00 Gemini Argon 发布反响 01:49 模型访问与安全 06:20 AI 模型竞赛 08:35 智能体突破与 2027 年 11:34 递归自我改进 15:41 DeepMind 领导层变动 19:52 Google 的 AI 算力投资 25:20 AI 支出可持续吗？ 33:18 Sundar 如何使用 AI 智能体 35:35 Gemini 的个人智能体计划 38:37 AI 智能体如何改变网络 43:52 Google 的太空数据中心 47:38 Waymo 的扩张战略 50:26 Wing 的无人机配送计划 51:36 AI 安全与监管 55:58 Google 的量子计算押注 YouTube：https://youtu.be/fJBSNEFdm8c Spotify：https://open.spotify.com/episode/0cJBqmVz3CWJSPdmBOeJGu?si=NBxJIMhZRgikafPtwY0sZA Substack：https://sources.news/p/sundar-pichai-gemini-4-google-other-bets Apple Podcasts：https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sundar-pichai-on-gemini-4-and-the-ai-compute-crunch/id1840154537?i=1000797461022 本期节目的呈现赞助商是 @hyperagentapp。感谢节目的首席赞助商：@Atlassian、@meetgranola 和 @mercury。

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran ("Dean of Valuation"), published a long blog and says Anthropic’s IPO will be priced on run-rate revenue rather than valued on cash flows. > Justifying a $1.5T to $2T value for Anthropic requires very fast early growth, operating margins rising to 30% or more, compute costs growing slower than revenue, and risk falling to average as regulation and business models settle. > H1 2026 losses of $8.7B at Anthropic and $21.6B at OpenAI, excluding non-cash charges, rule out earnings multiples, making ARR the AI equivalent of dot-com eyeballs and social-media user counts. > ARR has no standard: OpenAI’s $50B counts partner sales net, Anthropic’s $65B counts them gross, and grossing up OpenAI produced the roughly $70B figure investors circulated. Both annualize monthly, a choice either can change. > VC rounds here price the IPO rather than value the business: Anthropic’s May round raised $65B at $965B post-money when expected IPO pricing was $1.15T, a haircut for delay or disappointment. > Pricing will likely migrate to 2030 or 2036 revenue and earnings, where 25 times 2036 earnings looks cheap only when wrongly compared with today’s multiples on current earnings. > The cheaper lab depends on the yardstick: at $1.5T to $2T, Anthropic looks cheaper on current and year-end ARR, OpenAI on 2030 revenue, compute and users, and both may simply be overpriced. > No listed pure-play peer exists, since Gemini sits inside Alphabet, xAI inside SpaceX and Muse inside Meta, so Anthropic will be priced against OpenAI’s private rounds or the Mag 7 and SpaceX.

Sundar Pichai 谈 Gemini 4 与 AI 算力紧缺 即便是 Google 也拿不到足够的算力。在 Gemini 4 Argon 更广泛发布后不久，我与 Google 和 Alphabet CEO @sundarpichai 坐下来聊了聊它的早期反响、他仍希望模型改进的地方，以及要让 Google 保持在 AI 前沿需要付出什么。 Pichai 解释了 Google DeepMind 近期的领导层变动，以及为什么构建前沿模型已成为一份“全身心投入”的工作。我们还谈到了 Google 对个人智能体竞赛的回应、他如何预测 Gemini 将替你完成更多工作，以及智能体最终是否会把 Search、Gmail 和 Gemini 整合到一起。 我问他 Google 自由现金流转为负值、AI 基础设施建设中的风险，以及他如何在还不知道模型将具备何种能力的数年前就规划需求。他解释了让他有信心继续投入的信号，以及他如何使用 AI 智能体来跟踪 Google 内部的模型开发和算力使用情况。 时间戳： 00:00 Gemini Argon 发布反响 01:49 模型访问与安全 06:20 AI 模型竞赛 08:35 智能体突破与 2027 年 11:34 递归自我改进 15:41 DeepMind 领导层变动 19:52 Google 的 AI 算力投资 25:20 AI 支出可持续吗？ 33:18 Sundar 如何使用 AI 智能体 35:35 Gemini 的个人智能体计划 38:37 AI 智能体如何改变网络 43:52 Google 的太空数据中心 47:38 Waymo 的扩张战略 50:26 Wing 的无人机配送计划 51:36 AI 安全与监管 55:58 Google 的量子计算押注 YouTube：https://youtu.be/fJBSNEFdm8c Spotify：https://open.spotify.com/episode/0cJBqmVz3CWJSPdmBOeJGu?si=NBxJIMhZRgikafPtwY0sZA Substack：https://sources.news/p/sundar-pichai-gemini-4-google-other-bets Apple Podcasts：https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sundar-pichai-on-gemini-4-and-the-ai-compute-crunch/id1840154537?i=1000797461022 本期节目的呈现赞助商是 @hyperagentapp。感谢节目的首席赞助商：@Atlassian、@meetgranola 和 @mercury。

As Anthropic's IPO nears its target date, it it worth remembering that IPOs get priced, and that as a young company with growing revenues and big losses, that pricing will be based on metrics that are buzzy and unfamiliar, from eyeballs in the dotcom era to users in the social media decade to ARR with AI companies...https://bit.ly/4iBwsHm

verification is the biggest bottleneck for coding agents right now according to @addyosmani. we @warpdotdev have put a lot of thought into building a good computer-use tool for Warp Factories. every agents gets a computer to navigate the apps they built, take screenshots and recordings, and post them back for human review. 3-4mins of activity get edited down to 15 clips stitched together with cursor clicks, mouse animations, and key presses. we've been able to dramatically cut our time to merge and unlocked faster iteration + review cycles, especially for projects that are hard to mock out locally!

People treat Pangram as an infallible oracle. They weaponize its probabilities to shame others by some arbitrary purity standard. The irony is that it’s mostly redundant: obviously AI-generated stuff is already recognizable without it. And for more nuanced writing, Pangram fails to distinguish between text written by a human and edited by AI, vs text that is generated whole-cloth from a prompt. At the end of the day, @pangram ’s goal is about monetizing people’s anxiety about AI - it’s not about protecting creative integrity. They sell a false binary certainty to those gullible enough to ignore probabilities.