甲骨文与OpenAI的3000亿美元交易后股价暴跌，市场对循环融资模式失去信心
Circular financing ain’t what it used to be
2025年9月10日甲骨文宣布与OpenAI达成3000亿美元交易后股价一度飙升43%，但如今已从307美元跌至约120美元。市场对循环融资模式日益警惕，昨日英伟达考虑为OpenAI主导的数据中心提供2500亿美元支持的消息传出后，其股价开盘下跌超4.5%。苹果因未过度投资AI反而市值超越英伟达，SpaceX则从6月高点225美元下跌超50%。
Nine months ago, on September 10, 2025 Oracle announced what seemed to many to be the deal of the century! A $300 billion deal with OpenAI.
The market went wild. Oracle stock briefly went up by 43% (and ultimately even a bit higher). Larry Ellison’s net worth briefly leapt by $100 billion. The Wall St. Journal gushed:
The whole thing never made sense though. The next morning, inn an essay called Peak Bubble I warned that
Yet Oracle continued to rise!
But not for long. Its stock stood at $307 per share at the close of trading on September 10, and briefly closed as high as $328 ten days later. Now, as I write this, it’s hovering around $120.
In the intervening nine months, the market has grown wary of all this circular financing stuff. Mocking illustrations like this one (from yesterday) have become widespread:
All of which brings me to the present. Yesterday, news broke that Nvidia is considering offering a $250 billion backstop for an OpenAI-led data center. Which led last night to considerable skepticism
and this morning led to a dramatically different reaction from the market, nothing like the bounce like Oracle had back in September. Instead, in the first couple hours of trading Nvidia is down over 4.5%:
The market isn’t reading the latest potential Nvidia-OpenAI deal as good news; they are reading it as desperation. As one investor put it to me in an email this morning, “[the deal] seems incredibly desperate by both parties. Two drunks leaning on each other to stand up.”
Meanwhile, Apple, the butt of jokes for a while because “it didn’t invest in enough AI” just overtook Nvidia
and SpaceX, which tried to position itself as an AI company is in free fall, dropping over 3% today, and by over 25% in the last month, more than 50% from its June high of 225:
Meanwhile, creditors are getting pretty leery of the whole thing, too, as Axios just reported:
And then there’s all the off-balance-sheet financing that is coming to light. And the sudden need for so-called “creative financing”. If that’s not a warning sign, I don’t know what is.
The GenAI boom hasn’t been sustained by profits; it has been sustained by hope and circular financing. That may no longer be enough.
来源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust · garymarcus.substack.com