Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·· 2026-07-21AI 评分45
AI 导读
领先AI已分化为两条路线:美国闭源模型每百万token成本26-56美元,中国开源模型仅0.50-1美元。若强制美国公司以50-100倍成本竞争,将导致其财务受损、股市崩盘,且国内外客户会转向更便宜的方案,最终形成自我挫败的干预。
正文 · 原文
At some point every technology is a cost curve. Fight the curve and you will lose.
The protection doesn't even save the labs it's supposed to.
The leading AI has already forked into two options. A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens. B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens. If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will happen: 1. American companies spending 50-100x will at some point become financially impaired and the stock market will crater. This is the equivalent of the US Government saying we can only buy oil at $800/barrel even when the free market sells the same oil for $80/barrel. 2. In the short term, the revenues of the Closed American Labs may remain hi. But then their revenue will also crater because their customers in the US will be impaired and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions. This would be a terribly self-defeating form of intervention if it were to happen.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源:Rohan Paul · x.com