NYU Stern商学院估值教授Aswath Damodaran指出，AI的10-15万亿美元可寻址市场如果成功实则“可怕”。原因在于：AI作为工具的市场远小于替代人类的市场；只有AI取代人类，才能实现这一规模。若成真，半数白领将失业，社会面临收入丧失和人生意义缺失。他在播客中还讨论了TAM陷阱、AI单位经济学、增长伴随再投资可能破坏价值，以及AI正将部分科技巨头从轻资产公司转变为基础设施公司等观点。
The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying".
- The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business.
The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from.
"The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people.
If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world.
Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services?
If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.."
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Video from "Excess Returns" podcast (full video in quoted tweet, also link to their YT in comment)
“Growth, when it’s accompanied by huge amounts of reinvestment and substandard gross margins, might not just be neutral to value, but actually be value destructive.” Aswath Damodaran joined Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to explain why the biggest stories in markets still have to become businesses. They discuss: ☑️ His detailed valuation of SpaceX and how it compares to the current market valuation ☑️ Why total addressable market can be a trap for investors ☑️ Why AI’s unit economics may matter more than the size of the opportunity ☑️ How growth can destroy value when it requires massive reinvestment ☑️ Why AI is turning parts of big tech from asset-light businesses into infrastructure companies ☑️ Why great companies can still be bad investments at the wrong price在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com