Epoch AI 估算，自 2023 年以来达到固定基准分数的 AI 成本每季度下降约 47%，约合每年 13 倍降幅。在 GPQA Diamond 上，OpenAI 的 o3 需要 75% 分数约每题 $0.30，不到 18 个月后 GPT-5.6 Luna 以 $0.0004 达到同等水平，成本下降 725 倍。
AI costs are indeed dropping dramatically.
On GPQA Diamond, Epoch estimates OpenAI's o3 model needed about $0.30 per question to reach a 75% score.
Under 18 months later, GPT-5.6 Luna matched that level for $0.0004, a 725x cost drop.
Overall, Epoch estimates matching a fixed benchmark score has become about 47% cheaper each quarter since 2023.
That works out to roughly a 13x annual cost reduction across its five primary benchmarks.
Unlike earlier token-price studies, Epoch measures the dollars needed to reach the same benchmark accuracy over time.
It estimates each model’s cost-performance curve by replaying benchmark transcripts under tighter token budgets, using a method adapted from CAISI.
AI’s decline is 54x faster than electricity, 18x than batteries, 6x than compute and 4x than DNA sequencing.
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com