一篇 Microsoft 论文研究 LLM Agent 长程衰减,跨 9 个模型发现依赖步骤越多成功率越低,ToolQA 上短程近乎满分的模型到 16 步仅剩 0-33% 成功率。实验显示缩短上下文反而使衰减更糟,说明问题主要由步数而非上下文长度驱动;作者建议按真实工作流长度测试、度量每步可靠性并在错误扩散前加入检查点。
New Microsoft paper. Long agent runs expose failures that short benchmarks miss. Agents can look reliable at 2 or 4 steps and fall apart by 16.
every agent step has some chance of going wrong, and those small errors compound as the workflow gets longer.
Across 9 models, success usually dropped as the number of dependent steps increased.
On ToolQA, models that were near-perfect on short runs fell to just 0-33% success by 16 steps.
Long context was not the main driver: shortening the context made the decline worse, so blindly trimming history is not a reliability fix.
For builders, the recommendation is straightforward: stop treating a benchmark pass rate as proof that an agent is production-ready.
Test agents at the workflow lengths you actually expect, measure per-step reliability, and add checks or checkpoints before a bad step poisons everything that follows.
来源:Rohan Paul · x.com