Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas just published a report, that Texas firms with higher GenAI exposure were posting 8-9% fewer jobs.

They measure exposure by mapping O*NET tasks to actual Claude usage, then linking those scores to millions of Lightcast online postings.

By Q1 2025, more-exposed occupations had about 8% fewer postings relative to less-exposed ones; existing exposed firms were down 8% to 9% by early 2026.

The occupation-level gap opened after ChatGPT's release, reaching about 5% by end-2023 and 8% by Q1 2025.

Because online postings usually require little experience, the decline hits recent graduates and job switchers before many established workers.

Software development, web design, management, clerical work and editing sit among the occupations with the highest measured exposure.