Anthropic 上市估值或达 2 万亿美元，有望成为史上最大 IPO

Anthropic investors expect the AI startup to float at a valuation of $2 trillion or more in October, a dizzying figure that would eclipse SpaceX and make the AI lab’s debut the largest-ever initial public offering.

Half a dozen of the company’s backers told the FT that Anthropic’s rapidly rising revenue would enable it to more than double its current valuation in a planned autumn float.

A listing at that level could unlock billions of dollars in gains for the five-year-old company’s early investors but would also test public markets that are growing more nervous about the AI boom.

Anthropic’s backers say booming demand for the lab’s advanced AI models and tools justifies their lofty expectations. Investors expect the Claude maker’s annualized revenue to be between $100 billion and $120 billion by the end of 2026—using the startup’s preferred measure, which infers full-year sales from recent performance—up by more than 10 times over the course of 2026.

“If Anthropic is growing 800 percent a year, you’d think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue],” said one investor in the group. “That would make them a $3 trillion company.”

Anthropic lacks a publicly listed US peer that would provide a benchmark for its valuation. But companies that are seen as AI beneficiaries, such as data intelligence group Palantir and cloud company Nebius, have traded this year at roughly 55 times revenue.

Several investors said senior Anthropic executives had yet to fix the valuation target for the IPO, even in private conversations. But investors have built their own financial models.

Their bullish projections come despite mounting challenges, including rising competition from Chinese rivals, pressure for AI regulation, and a simmering feud with the US government.

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Those concerns, particularly the Commerce Department’s temporary ban on Anthropic’s best models, contributed to overall revenue growth slowing in the month of June, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter. Even so, they said the company had rebounded and continued to grow at an extraordinary rate even by Silicon Valley standards.

Anthropic declined to comment.

The startup led by Dario Amodei filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, putting the company in a quiet period that limits public announcements about its financial performance.

Anthropic has gained ground on rivals OpenAI and Google this year, releasing models that have outperformed competitors while focusing on sales to business customers. The group announced in May that its annualized revenue had surpassed $47 billion.

Venture capitalists, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors have poured just under $100 billion into the company in 2026. Anthropic’s valuation leapfrogged OpenAI’s for the first time in May, reaching $965 billion, including the new investment.

But the group also faces considerable uncertainty. It has repeatedly clashed with the Trump administration and remains in active litigation against the US Department of Defense, which labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk earlier this year.

Anthropic has since been forced to briefly pull its leading models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after being hit with export controls by the Commerce Department in June. The episode spooked some customers who rely on Anthropic models.

Customers are also increasingly sensitive to the price of accessing the best models. Faced with spiraling costs, they have, in some cases, reversed directives for employees to maximize their AI use and opted for less powerful, cheaper models.

Anthropic’s market-leading model costs more than two and a half times as much to use as OpenAI’s flagship, while Chinese open-weight alternatives, which have also improved dramatically this year, are a fraction of the cost, according to Artificial Analysis, which analyzes AI models.

Anthropic increased its market share among US businesses last month, according to data from payments group Ramp. But analysts at the company found that businesses were “hitting their limit on AI spend” and turning to cheaper alternatives.****

“It’s easy to come up with challenges,” said an Anthropic investor who has also backed AI groups including OpenAI and SpaceX, which went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation in June. “But the company continues to be in first position in performance, positioning, and what people want exposure to.”

Additional reporting by Zijing Wu and Ivan Levingston.