Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·· 2026-07-30AI 评分40
AI 导读
Dwarkesh 最新估算指出，若模型实用性跑赢硬件供给，AI 算力成本可能上涨 10 倍以上。一台 H100 若能完成人类软件工程师的工作，年收入可达 25 万美元，约为当前每小时 2 美元价格的 15 倍。
正文 · 原文
AI compute could become 10x more expensive if model usefulness outruns hardware supply.
New estimated from Dwarkesh.
If one H100 could do a human software engineer's job, it could earn over $250K a year. That is roughly 15x today's $2 hourly price.
New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year. In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com