高盛报告预测，到2030年AI智能体（agent）的token使用量将增长24倍，月用量或达120 quadrillion，同时推理成本每年下降60%-70%。高通CEO Cristiano Amon指出，2026年全球每10秒token需求约317亿，到2030年增至1.27万亿（40倍增长）。与chatbot单次回答不同，agent需规划、调用工具、检查并修正错误，单次请求可能消耗10至50倍甚至更多token。AI正从人类节奏转向Agent节奏的持续性活动，token爆炸背后是生产力与浪费的博弈。
Goldman Sachs: "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24 times by 2030"
AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week, Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage.
A chatbot may answer once, but an agent plans, calls tools, checks results, edits mistakes, and repeats the loop.
That loop can make one user request consume 10x, 50x, or even far more tokens than a normal answer.
Goldman’s bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030, while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year.
The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste.
"Every 10 seconds, global token demand is around 31.7 billion in 2026. By 2030 its 1.27 trillion, a 40x increase." ~ Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon: --- The token explosion is not mainly about smarter answers; it is about AI moving from human-paced interaction to Agent-paced activity. Once agents become persistent, the economy of AI stops will be the background infrastructure. Every useful action has a hidden bill: context must be carried, memory must be updated, sensors may need to be interpreted, and mistakes must be caught before they become expensive. ---- From "Reuters" YouTube channel, (link in comment)在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com