GPT-4统治地位持续一年，如今顶级模型仅能维持七周榜首

GPT-4's dominance lasted a year while today's top models barely survive seven weeks at the top

AI 导读

GPT-4在ECI指数上保持第一约一年，远超其后任何模型。OpenAI的o1以三个多月的领先时长位居第二，不到GPT-4统治期的三分之一。自2024年2月Claude 3 Opus取代GPT-4后，榜首已易手17次，每款模型的中位在位时长约为七周。这表明模型间竞争显著加剧，性能提升更快但幅度更小。

正文 · 原文

OpenAI's GPT-4 held the top spot on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) for about a year. The ECI is a composite measure of language model performance. According to Epoch AI researcher Jaeho Lee, that's far longer than any model since. OpenAI's o1 held the second-longest lead at just over three months, less than a third of GPT-4's reign. Since Claude 3 Opus dethroned GPT-4 in February 2024, the lead has changed hands 17 times. The median stay at the top per model was about seven weeks.

GPT-4 led the Epoch Capabilities Index for about a year. No model since has held the top spot for anywhere near as long. | Image: Epoch AI

The chart can be read two ways. It shows how long rival labs needed to match GPT-4, a genuine outlier at launch. But it also shows that competition has gotten much fiercer since. No model can hold a comparable lead anymore, and the capability jumps between transitions are faster but smaller compared to GPT-4 and the era that began with reasoning models like o1-preview in fall 2024.