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Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·· 2026-06-27AI 评分70
AI 导读

AI季度收入达$250亿,首次超过芯片与数据中心折旧估算$210亿(未计电力、人力等成本)。据@exponentialview报告,过去12个月去除重复计算的真实AI收入为$1100亿,当前年化$1750亿(终端客户支出,不含中国等),增长速度约为移动/互联网浪潮的3倍。每新增$10亿收入所需时间从2023年的180天缩至不到2天。企业AI已超越试点阶段,但全面推广仍处早期。降价效应显著:每降10%推动12-18%更多token使用,需求呈价格弹性。电力与数据中心成本仍是未来扩展的主要瓶颈。

正文 · 原文

AI revenue has crossed its first serious accounting test: $25B in quarterly sales now exceeds $21B in estimated chip and data-center depreciation.

i.e. AI infrastructure is starting to pay for itself before power, labor, financing, and leases are counted.

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Chart from Bloomberg

bloomberg. com/news/articles/2026-06-25/ai-demand-begins-to-justify-massive-cost-of-data-center-buildout

引用Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
This is a brilliant report. The State of the AI Economy by @exponentialview - $110B real AI revenue over 12 months, after removing double-counting. so $1 spent on Claude is counted once, even if part of it later flows to Amazon or another infrastructure provider. - $175B current annualized run rate, showing fast acceleration. Measured by end-customer spend, not supply-chain pass-through revenue. Excludes China, internal AI savings, ad uplift, consulting, and systems integration. - Growth running roughly 3x faster than mobile or internet adoption waves. - The pace of revenue formation has sharply accelerated. New $1B revenue now arrives in under 2 days, versus 180 days in 2023. - Enterprise AI has moved beyond pilots, but deep company-wide rollout is still early. - AI earnings-call mentions reached 31% of tracked S&P 500 firms. - Only 20% of tracked firms made quantified AI impact claims. - Hyperscaler AI revenue roughly covers AI infrastructure depreciation for now. GPU economics depend heavily on 6-year compute life assumptions. Other AI infrastructure gets modeled over 14 years. - Token price cuts do not automatically reduce revenue. - Every 10% token price cut drives 12-18% more token usage. - AI demand looks price elastic, meaning cheaper AI expands usage faster than prices fall. - Power availability and data-center costs remain major limits on future scaling.
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来源:Rohan Paul · x.com