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Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·· 2026-05-30AI 评分69
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一项对6000名高管的调查显示,尽管投入巨大,超过80%的公司尚未从AI中获得生产力提升。仅1/3的领导者使用AI,且平均每周使用时间仅约90分钟。不过,多数受访者预期AI未来三年内将提升生产力。与此同时,Goldman Sachs预测AI智能体的Token使用量到2030年将增长24倍,因其任务循环消耗的Token可能远高于普通对话。智能体生产力与Token消耗之间的平衡,正成为企业新的成本考验,微软近期收紧了对Claude Code的访问即是一例。

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This survey suggests over 80% of companies have seen no productivity gains from AI so far, despite billions in spending.

Among 6,000 executives, 1/3 of leaders said they use AI, but only for 90 minutes a week.

This is even though most respondents believe AI will increase productivity by 1.4%, cut staff by 0.7%, and boost output by 0.8% in the next 3 years.

Of the executives, a third said they use AI at work, but only around 1.5 hours per week on average. Meanwhile, 25% of those surveyed have not used AI yet.

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nber .org/papers/w34836

引用Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
Goldman Sachs: "Token use by AI agents is expected to multiply 24 times by 2030" AI agents are now creating the first serious cost test for the AI boom. As was reported this week, Uber and Microsoft are already rethinking expensive agent usage. A chatbot may answer once, but an agent plans, calls tools, checks results, edits mistakes, and repeats the loop. That loop can make one user request consume 10x, 50x, or even far more tokens than a normal answer. Goldman’s bullish case is that monthly token use could reach 120 quadrillion by 2030, while inference cost per token keeps falling 60%-70% per year. The fight is now between agent productivity and token waste. Earlier this month, Microsoft began revoking developer access to Claude Code, with plans to move them to its in-house Copilot Command Line Interface tool by June 30. The company has framed this as consolidating teams around its own tools, but the timing at the fiscal year’s end hints it may also be about lowering costs.
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来源:Rohan Paul · x.com